2014年8月3日 星期日

Warren Buffett has a simple solution that could help an individual turn $40 into $10 million

Warren Buffett is perhaps the greatest investor of all time, and he has a simple solution that could help an individual turn $40 into $10 million.

A few years ago, Berkshire Hathaway  CEO and Chairman Warren Buffett spoke about one of his favorite companies, Coca-Cola (NYSE: KO), and how after dividends, stock splits, and patient reinvestment, someone who bought just $40 worth of the company's stock when it went public in 1919 would now have more than $5 million.


Source: Coca-Cola.

Yet in April 2012, when the board of directors proposed a stock split of the beloved soft-drink manufacturer, that figure was updated and the company noted that original $40 would now be worth $9.8 million. A little back-of-the-envelope math of the total return of Coke since May 2012 would mean that $9.8 million is now worth about $10.8 million.

The power of patienceI know that $40 in 1919 is very different from $40 today. However, even after factoring for inflation, it turns out to be $540 in today's money. Put differently, would you rather have an Xbox One, or almost $11 million?

But the thing is, it isn't even as though an investment in Coca-Cola was a no-brainer at that point, or in the near century since then. Sugar prices were rising. World War I had just ended a year prior. The Great Depression happened a few years later. World War II resulted in sugar rationing. And there have been countless other things over the past 100 years that would cause someone to question whether their money should be in stocks, much less one of a consumer-goods company like Coca-Cola.

The dangers of timing
Yet as Buffett has noted continually, it's terribly dangerous to attempt to time the market:
"With a wonderful business, you can figure out what will happen; you can't figure out when it will happen. You don't want to focus on when, you want to focus on what. If you're right about what, you don't have to worry about when" 
So often investors are told they must attempt to time the market, and begin investing when the market is on the rise, and sell when the market is falling.

This type of technical analysis of watching stock movements and buying based on how the prices fluctuate over 200-day moving averages or other seemingly arbitrary fluctuations often receives a lot of media attention, but it has been proved to simply be no better than random chance.

Investing for the long termIndividuals need to see that investing is not like placing a wager on the 49ers to cover the spread against the Panthers, but instead it's buying a tangible piece of a business.

It is absolutely important to understand the relative price you are paying for that business, but what isn't important is attempting to understand whether you're buying in at the "right time," as that is so often just an arbitrary imagination.

In Buffett's own words, "if you're right about the business, you'll make a lot of money," so don't bother about attempting to buy stocks based on how their stock charts have looked over the past 200 days. Instead always remember that "it's far better to buy a wonderful company at a fair price."

How About Three Wonderful Companies?
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Best hotel in Britain is Birmingham's £49-a-night Holiday Inn, according to Chinese tourists

  • The 236ft high-rise was given a 9.6 rating out of 10 on website booking.com
  • 224-room hotel has Wi-Fi, air conditioning and a free continental breakfast
  • Impressed guests praised the 'deep bath tub' and 'excellent eggs' on offer
  • Was followed by Old Town Chambers, Edinburgh and Paradise Hotel, Bath
  • Number of Chinese visitors has double since 2009 and could treble by 2020
Most of the handful of negative complaints focused on the breakfast. One reviewer said the breakfast bore 'all the resemblance of a microwave meal' while another said it was simply 'an awful ordeal'.

Another said the scrambled eggs were 'very salty and probably powder form'.
The hotel has 224 air-conditioned bedrooms, each with Wi-Fi. According to the hotel's website, Snow Hill is 'ideally located in the heart of Birmingham city centre'.


Edinburgh's Old Town Chambers, pictured above, were voted as the second best place to stay in the UK by Chinese tourists
It says the hotel, which opened in the former office block in 2013, is a short stroll from Snow Hill and New Street Train Stations which have direct train links to Birmingham International Airport.


The city's Bullring Shopping Centre is a 10-minute stroll from the hotel, while Cadbury's World, the Sealife Centre and Drayton Manor Theme Park are also nearby. It is also close to the National Indoor Arena and the ICC.


TOP FIVE UK HOTELS AS RATED BY CHINESE VISITORS

1) Holiday Inn Express Birmingham – Snow Hill, Birmingham, 9.6
2) Old Town Chambers, Edinburgh, 9.4
3) Bath Paradise House, Bath, 9.4
4) Broadlands Guest House, Windermere, 9.3
5) Tower Guest House, York, 9.3

The Colmore Business district is also 'on its doorstep', offering 'easy access to Wesleyan Assurance, PWC and Barclays'.

The figures about the Chinese visitor were released by Booking.com, which said there had been a significant rise in the number of tourists coming to the UK from China. 
There has been a 50 increase in the number of Chinese tourists in the first quarter of this year, compared to 2013, when there were 231,000, it said.

According to VisitBritain, visitors from China have doubled in the last five years and tourism leaders hope these numbers will treble again by 2020.

Jason Grist, the UK Area Manager of Booking.com, said: 'In line with industry trends, we have experienced a 50 per cent increase in UK bookings by Chinese tourists in the first quarter of 2014 compared to the same timeframe in 2013.

Paradise House Hotel in Bath was voted as the third best place to stay, and was also a 9.4 rating
Paradise House Hotel in Bath was voted as the third best place to stay, with a 9.4 rating


'In addition, we have seen the range of accommodations stayed in increase by almost a third. We believe this growth is just the beginning.

'By enhancing our service for Chinese visitors, it will help drive interest not only for us, but also for UK tourism.'

The website released the figures after it became a member of the VisitBritain ‘GREAT China Welcome’ Charter (GCW) campaign.

The charter, which  was launched in March 2014, involves 170 members working to provide 'exceptional tourism' for Chinese visitors.


The initiative involves making it easier for Chinese visitors to identify hotels, attractions and tour operators that are providing information in Chinese and generally making it easier for these tourists.

A TYPICAL 'MODERN HOTEL': THE UK'S NUMBER ONE HOTEL


After a six-hour, traffic-saturated journey from London to Birmingham, I arrived in the second city at 10pm with nowhere to stay.


The landlord my new apartment block wasn't picking up the phone, and my sat nav had conked out.


And so it was that I came to stay at the nation's favourite hotel: the Holiday Inn Express in Snow Hill, Birmingham.

Imagine a typical ‘modern hotel’: that’s what it looks like.
You are greeted by the sight of a sleek white reception desk, striped carpets, glossy walls, and leather chairs.

It was late but staff were phenomenally cheery. 
They set me up with a double room and helped me lug my car-load of bags and boxes into the lift.

With crisp white bed sheets and a strong smell of air freshener, it screamed 'CLEAN'.
There was a small kettle with tea bags ready and waiting, and a toothbrush to save me digging around.

I don’t have any distinct memories about the mattress, but the pillow was a cushy heaven. 

In the morning, I was greeted like a chum, offered breakfast, and – when I said I was in a rush – swiftly given a hand packing myself up.

FromL the Dailymail

The Cambridges will move to the Sandringham Estate in Norfolk



  • Couple spent £4.5m refurbishing 20-room apartment in Kensington Palace
  • It has a secluded yet central location - and a Peter Rabbit-themed nursery
  • But the couple will move to the Sandringham Estate in Norfolk
  • They know North Norfolk well and have wide circle of well-connected friends


  • With its secluded yet central location, elegant grounds and distinguished history, it is, you might think, the perfect Royal Family home.

    Add to that a Peter Rabbit-themed nursery and a £4.5 million recent refurbishment (courtesy of the taxpayer) and Kensington Palace would appear to be the ideal place for the Duke and Duchess of Cambridge to bring up baby George.

    Despite all this – and the official protestations that Kensington does indeed remain their long-term family home – the Cambridges have decided that they would rather be in Norfolk.

    With a secluded location, elegant grounds and a £4.5m refit, Kensington Palace would appear to be the ideal place for the Duke and Duchess to bring up baby George, but the couple have decided to move to Norfolk
    With a secluded location, elegant grounds and a £4.5m refit, Kensington Palace would appear to be the ideal place for the Duke and Duchess to bring up baby George, but the couple have decided to move to Norfolk


    With William starting his job with the East Anglian Air Ambulance service later this year, they have decided to base themselves at Anmer Hall, their new Norfolk home. An announcement about the new post is expected imminently.

    Royal aides are insisting that ‘KP’, where Kate and William have lived since moving there from Anglesey  in September 2013, will remain the couple’s ‘full-time family home and long-term residence’.

     William and Kate intend to spend the next two years in Norfolk.

    They added: ‘William and Catherine are not pavement people; they prefer the countryside. They really miss Anglesey.

    They can’t wait to move into Anmer Hall. All of George’s things will be there – it’s very much going to be their family home.

    ‘William has told me that while Kensington Palace is their long-term home, and I think the plan is that it will always be so, they both love the countryside.

    Kensington Palace, London, is only a short drive from Kate's family home in Berkshire. Kate and Wills may have only an 'apartment' in the Palace - but with 20 rooms over four storeys, it's hardly modest
    Kensington Palace, London, is only a short drive from Kate's family home in Berkshire. Kate and Wills may have only an 'apartment' in the Palace - but with 20 rooms over four storeys, it's hardly modest



    ‘They enjoy the quiet life they can  have there, and feel somewhat imprisoned in the Palace. Anmer is going to be perfect for a couple of years – that is the plan,’ she explained.

    The Cambridges have already attracted controversy over the cost of Kensington Palace, not least when the Duchess replaced the existing kitchen of their London residence – Apartment 1A at the Palace – at a cost of £170,000, before opting to build a second one.

    Despite a private drive, courtyard and spacious walled garden, the Palace overlooks Kensington Park Gardens –  a public space – and William and Kate often find themselves being photographed going about their daily lives.

    Anmer Hall, Norfolk, where the couple will bring up baby George. It has its own tennis court and £38,000 kitchen put in six years ago has been ripped out  by the Cambridges during a £1.5million refurbishment
    Anmer Hall, Norfolk, where the couple will bring up baby George. It has its own tennis court and £38,000 kitchen put in six years ago has been ripped out by the Cambridges during a £1.5million refurbishment


    The Duchess no longer walks Prince George through Kensington after she was snapped in the Royal park last year.

    She is routinely caught on camera when she pops into local stores on Kensington High Street and both she and William have told friends that  they miss the freedom they enjoyed when they lived in Wales.

    Anmer Hall, situated on the Queen’s Sandringham Estate, is in the last stages of a two-year, £1.5 million refurbishment, which has been paid for privately, and the couple intend to spend most of August there to oversee the final details.

    They are expected to stay at Wood Farm, a cottage on the Royal estate, while works are completed.

    Norfolk has always been a special part of the world to William, and Anmer Hall, a 200-year-old, Grade II listed property, was a 30th birthday present to him from the Queen. 

    The Duchess no longer walks Prince George through Kensington after she was snapped in the Royal park last year. She and William have told friends they miss the freedom they had when they lived in Wales

    The ten-bedroom mansion has a swimming pool and tennis court and its refurbishment includes a new kitchen and garden room, rerouting the driveway to the property to make it more private, converting a garage block into accommodation for their team of protection officers and converting an outhouse into a space for George’s nanny.
    The Duke and Duchess’s decision to base themselves in East Anglia  is apparently supported by Prince Charles.

    A source confirmed: ‘Charles is very much behind it. He wants William to have as ordinary a family life as he can before he becomes a full-time Royal.’

    William has taken a ‘transitional’ year out since quitting the RAF last September. He has said he misses flying and is expected to work a shift pattern with the Air Ambulance – four days on and three off – which means he will have plenty of time to spend with his new family.

    William Van Cutsem with wife Rosie. William and Harry spent much of their childhood at Anmer Hall  when it was the residence of the  Van Cutsem family, who are long-established friends of the Royals
    William Van Cutsem with wife Rosie. William and Harry spent much of their childhood at Anmer Hall when it was the residence of the Van Cutsem family, who are long-established friends of the Royals


    It is anticipated that Prince George will go to nursery and primary school in London, when the time comes.

    William and Kate know North Norfolk well and have a wide circle of well-connected friends – dubbed the ‘Turnip Toffs’ – in East Anglia.

    They have been seen shopping at local stores such as the Mews Antiques Emporium and Shirehall Plain Antiques in nearby Holt.

    William is fond of the Dabbling Duck Pub in Great Massingham and the bakery in Great Bircham, both  a short drive from the Hall. And recently the Cambridges were made honorary members at the prestigious Royal West Norfolk Golf Club.

    William and Harry spent much of their childhood at Anmer Hall  when it was the residence of the  Van Cutsem family, who are long-established friends of the Royals. William’s cousin Laura Fellowes – daughter of Lord Robert Fellowes and Lady Jane, Princess Diana’s sister – also lives in Norfolk.

    Prince William's first cousin, author Laura Jane FellowesDavina Duckworth-Chad
    William's cousin Laura Fellowes, left, daughter of Lord Robert Fellowes and Lady Jane - Princess Diana's sister - also lives in Norfolk, as does Davina Duckworth Chad, right, who is an old friend of William


    A guest at the Royal Wedding, she is an Edinburgh University graduate and known as ‘Mavis’ to her family and friends. There are other friends close by. The Duckworth-Chad family, who live at Pynkney Hall near King’s Lynn, have enjoyed a long friendship with Prince Charles.

    Landowner Anthony Duckworth-Chad’s daughter Davina is an old friend of William and has six-year-old twins – India Honor and Siena Beatrice. The couple can also count Baron Howard of Rising and his family as friends in the area.

    William and Harry play in an annual football match close to the famous castle ruins of Castle Rising and are regular guests at the grand stately pile. Baron Howard’s children Annabel, Charlie and Tom, are close in age to William and Kate.

    Further along the coast at Holkham, where William and Harry played on the beach as children, is Viscount Thomas Coke and his family, who run Holkham Hall.



    Festival of British Eventing at Gatcombe Park




  • Zara Phillips pictured with daughter Mia at Festival of British Eventing today
  • Donning pink top and white sunhat, six-month-old seen smiling and giggling
  • They watched international riders in action at the event at Gatcombe Park
  • Zara later competed in show ahead of World Equestrian Games this month

  • Yesterday, Zara joined her mother, the Princess Royal, and her father Mark Phillips, currently Chef d'Equipe for the U.S. eventing team, for the opening of the equestrian festival.
    The trio appeared in good spirits, with Captain Phillips pictured throwing a protective arm around his daughter, while his first wife Princess Anne cracked a joke before rubbing her nose.

    She later changed into her dressage gear as she competed in the show with her London Olympics horse High Kingdom ahead of the World Equestrian Games in Normandy later this month.


    Zara, who won a silver medal in the London 2012 Olympics, was dressed casually for the day in a blue T-shirt and a dark blue gillet. But she later changed into her dressage gear as she competed in the show with her London Olympics horse High Kingdom ahead of the World Equestrian Games in Normandy later this month.Zara, who won a silver medal in the London 2012 Olympics, was dressed casually for the day in a blue T-shirt and a dark blue gillet. But she later changed into her dressage gear as she competed in the show with her London Olympics horse High Kingdom ahead of the World Equestrian Games in Normandy later this month.
    Showing her daughter how it's done: Zara, was dressed casually for the day in a blue T-shirt and gillet. But she later changed into her dressage gear as she competed in the show with her Olympics horse High Kingdom

    Like the Princess Royal and Zara, Captain Phillips has enjoyed enormous success in the world of equestrianism, beginning with his gold medal winning appearance at the Munich Olympics in 1972.
    As well as Olympics success, he won the Badminton Horse Trials in 1971 and 1972 riding Great Ovation, in 1974 on Colombus, and in 1981 on Lincoln.
    After he retired from the Army, he continued to style himself Captain Mark Phillips - which was allowed as junior cavalry officers whose civilian work involves equestrianism may continue to use their rank.
    While Zara is yet to win Olympic gold, she will be hoping for a good performance in Normandy later this month, with Team GB selectors for Rio 2016 expected to be in the crowd.

    She will, at least, have the support of her London 2012 teammates William Fox-Pitt, Tina Cook, Nicola Wilson and Mary King, who are also expected to compete in France.

    The Festival of British Eventing takes place at the Princess Royal's Gatcombe Park estate in Gloucestershire, where Zara also lives.
    As well as eventing, it features a shopping village, arena attractions and family entertainment.

    Spectators: Peter and Autumn Phillips with their daughters Savannah and Isla and a friend at the festival
    Spectators: Peter and Autumn Phillips with their daughters Savannah and Isla and a friend at the festival

    Catching up: Yesterday, Zara joined her mother, the Princess Royal (left) and her father Mark Phillips (centre), currently Chef d'Equipe for the U.S. eventing team, for the opening of the equestrian festival
    Catching up: Yesterday, Zara joined her mother, the Princess Royal (left) and her father Mark Phillips 
    (centre), currently Chef d'Equipe for the U.S. eventing team, for the opening of the equestrian festival


    Zara Phillips and her sister-in-law Autumn are pictured at the Gloucestershire festival yesterdayZara Phillips and her sister-in-law Autumn are pictured at the Gloucestershire festival yesterday
    Out and about: Zara Phillips and her sister-in-law Autumn are pictured at the Gloucestershire festival yesterday